Russian interests in syria pdf files

In this regard, russia s decision to stand with its ally is especially important. The most important spheres are sales of military equipment and energy. What russia and iran have accomplished in syria is important for american national security interests and policy in the region because it frames some of the hard choices washington faces. First, the recent deployment of russian military forces to syria will maintain a defensive posture to prevent the collapse of the syrian regime rather than a direct offensive posture to seize. Russias military campaign, while ostensibly directed at the islamic state, is inflicting a devastating toll against syrian civilians. Abner introduction russian president vladimir putins overarching goal is to create a multipolar world in which russia is a leading entity. The russian military intervention in syria began in autumn 2015 and was met. While iran does not consider the kurds a terrorist group, it does not consider them an ally either, given their views on the future prospects of the assad regime. Myth 2 russia holds the key to resolving the syrian conflict. I will focus on president vladimir putins efforts to return russia to the middle east and especially highlight iran, syria, and libya, and describe how these efforts sow instability and thus hurt u. Fox fellow, foreign policy research institute senior fellow, center for cyber and homeland security, the george washington university statement prepared for the u.

Many in the western policy community were surprised by russia s actions. Russian spetsnaz, contractors sarah fainberg 6 as july 2015, two months before russia s official entry into the syrian conflict. One possibility is an increasing sense in moscow that the assad regime is going to collapse in the near future. Russia does have extensive economic interests in the middle east, and especially in syria.

Preserve access of russian companies to syria s market to ensure that the country continues to. Cultural connections moscow has counted an assadled syria as its closest ally in the arab world for more than forty years. If it manages to effectively extricate itself from donbas, russia will be able to free itself from the financial burden of sustaining the separatist republics and may see the sectoral sanctions applied by the eu loosened or removed. At the same time, moscows heavyhanded attempts to tighten its grip over eastern ukraine were accompanied by waves of. Why russia supports repressive regimes in syria and the. Russian intervention in syria air power development centre. Russia syria relations refers to the bilateral relationship between russia and syria.

Its unanticipated military foray into syria has transformed. It intends to demonstrate moscows great power reach, thwart us policy in its own hemisphere, and underscore that a multipolar world will replace the era of american predominance. Russia has goals, but to western observers they appear to be either transactional or. Finally, the paper does not assess the actual ability of the russian strategic community to execute the lessons learned. Underlying interests and policy objectives simon saradzhyan november 16, 2015. He will attempt to do this by regaining his control over ukraine, expanding his interests in the.

The fact that both countries are conducting military operations in syria poses serious dangers. Yet moscows reset with ankara is not primarily directed at the west. Russian president vladimir putin and syrian president bashar alassad at syria s khmeimim air force base, december 2017. During all the ups and downs in the present crises engulfing middle east, one thing has remained the same the unflinching support of russia for its longtime ally syria s bashar. The implications of the syrian war for new regional orders. Russian interests in syria moscows economic interests in syria have often been cited as a crucial factor in its strategy to back the assad regime. A strategy for ending the syrian civil ar 2 syrias zones of control any attempt to deescalate the syrian war and reach a political settlement must begin with an acknowledgement of changing dynamics on the ground. Rather than advancing its selfproclaimed objective of fighting terrorism. The key interests behind russias vision for syria are. Moscows backing of maduro supports every element of kremlin policy listed above.

Russia enjoys a historically strong, stable, and friendly relationship with syria, as it did until the arab spring with most of the arab countries. This perspective seeks to identify the important elements of russian interests in the middle east beyond syria, to define the nature of russian engagement in the region, and to describe the contours of a russian strategy in the middle east. Russian cooperation on counterterrorism is the countries diverging interests in syria. A day later, a threestar russian general walked into the offices of the u. It enables russia to pursue the limited objective of securing its military interests on the syrian coast, where the port of tartus is russias only remaining middle east base and where many dual russiansyrian citizens live. Sep 28, 2018 russian strategy in syria and the broader middle east consists of supporting what it considers legitimate institutions through extensive foreign aid programs, including economic and security assistance, political support and, as seen in syria, direct military intervention. Specifically, it aimed to defend and save an embattled ally and secure russian militarypolitical assets in syria. The syria crisis and the making of russias foreign policy. Six scenarios for proregime militias in postwar syria. Kimberly marten reducing tensions between russia and nato. With the intensification of russia s military presence in syria in late augustearly september 2015, the number of russian. Russias strategic interest in syria themarketswork. Despite their alliance, russia has never had much influence over syrias policies. In recent years, particularly since the ukraine conflict, russias use of media as a key lever of broader influence campaigns has gained notoriety domestically and internationally.

Russia has an embassy in damascus and syria has an embassy in moscow. One state and, of course, first and foremost the united states, has overstepped its national borders in every way, he warned. Commercial and military interests in syria have solidified russian support for assad. The unrest began in the early spring of 2011 within the context of arab spring protests, with nationwide protests against president bashar alassads government, whose forces responded with violent crackdowns. Among these interests is ussias lucrative business in exporting arms, which accounted for nearly 21 percent of all global arms sales in 2016, second only to the u. Chinese economic interests in syria also contribute to sino russian cooperation in support of the assad government.

In the nineteenth century, czarist russia began asserting its geo strategic, economic, religious, and cultural interests in the middle east as framed by its competition with the west. Power, prestige, and profit azuolas bagdonas1 abstract despite the crimes against humanity committed by bashar assads regime in syria and despite the growing international pressure, russia provided steadfast international. Russian and iranian visions for syria it is easy to oversimplify russias and irans interests in syria. The intervention in syria demonstrated the traditional holistic russian approach, as the campaign has promoted several connected goals. It enables russia to pursue the limited objective of securing its military interests on the syrian coast, where the port of tartus is russia s only remaining middle east base and where many dual russian syrian citizens live. It is likely that syrian forces with russian help will launch an operation to regain control of this oppositionheld pocket of idlib in northwestern syria, causing yet more refugee suffering. The russian intervention in syria, which was the actual cause of the rupturethe air incident was a pretexthas undercut turkeys policies in its near neighborhood and materially damaged its interests in syria. The russian deployment to syria likely supports multiple objectives. In reality, russia s financial gainsfor example through the sale of arms to the syrian governmentare limited. Both states are driven by numerous, sometimes overlapping, interests that go beyond mere ideological dogmatism. Moscow also feared that khatamis call for a dialogue of civilizations might lead to rapprochement with the united statesand limit russian influence in tehran. Thomas points to optimistic versus pessimistic russian views on how the recent us election will impact us policy in syria.

The russia turkeyiran collaboration was a new alliance among states that created a new negotiating process in astana and sochi that paralleled the syrian geneva. Russian objectives in syria the russian deployment to syria likely supports multiple objectives. Occasional paper understanding irans role in the syrian. Moscow worked to build diplomatic and cultural ties, especially in syria and palestine, to create constituencies on which it could later rely for support. Iran s position is also linked to fears of the establishment of kurdish independence in northern syria. Russias strategic objectives in the middle east and north. Obamas administration abandoned mubarak, a longtime american ally, yet the kremlin. Russias economy interests behind its risky military move. While russian iranian cooperation up to now has been based on their common interests outweighing their ongoing differences, the possibility of increased conflict between iran and its regional rivals could significantly raise the costs for moscow of continuing to cooperate with iran as well as highlight moscows inability to effectively play. As many of these militias represent the interests of their sponsors, which have significant leverage through a widespread territorial footprint, their future place in syria s military and political order matters. It is a defensive policy aimed mainly at developing its traditional political and economic interests in the region and protecting its southern borders.

It highlights the main topics of interest of the russian military brass, theoreticians and experts, but does not seek to outline specific resolutions. Russia officially launched its airstrikes in syria in september 2015. Russia views cyber very differently than its western counterparts, from the way russian theorists define cyberwarfare to how the kremlin employs its cyber capabilities. Russian and iranian visions for syria it is easy to oversimplify russia s and irans interests in syria.

Russian cooperation more desirable at certain junctures. Chinese economic interests in syria also contribute to sinorussian cooperation in support of the assad government. Russian strategy in the middle east rand corporation. National interests report graham allison and robert d. Economic engagement in syria throughout wartime helped carve out bigger market shares for chinese and russian businesses in strategic sectors of the syrian economy and establish a favorable position in the countrys reconstruction. It enables russia to pursue the limited objective of securing its military interests on the syrian coast, where the port of tartus is russia s only remaining middle east base and where many dual russiansyrian citizens live. The syrian civil war is an ongoing international armed conflict taking place in syria. The council on foreign relations cfr is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members, government officials, business execu.

In sum, the latest stage in moscows diplomacy on the syria crisis has been a mix of damage limitation and attempts to instrumentalize russia s role as a key mediator, including for foreign policy purposes related more to russia s relations with its u. The real and hidden costs of russias foreign policy. Many would say this tactic carries profou nd risk for syria an d its external stake. Russias foreign policy towards syria and the greater middle east is generally not aggressive. His research interests include international security, cultural approach to ir, modern military thought, and american, russian and israeli national security policies. The reporters were skeptical about the omission being a coincidence. These statements indicate that that russian leaders believe that they can live with a syria without assad as long as 1 his successors is chosen through negotiations, in which russia has a say, followed by elections rather than through use of force and 2 the new leadership honors russia s interests. Preserve access of russian companies to syrias market to ensure that the country continues to buy russianmade arms and machinery, ensuring at least some degree of diversification of russias economy, largely driven by the oil and gas sectors. Secondly, this thesis will examine the internal factors that influence russian foreign policy towards syria, displaying that russias support for the alassad regime goes far beyond russian interests in syria and russiansyrian relations. Russian leadership, major economic reforms are politically undesirable for two reasons. The small russian naval facility at tartus has more. The strikes constitute russia s biggest intervention in the middle east in decades.

Russian involvement in the syrian civil war wikipedia. Many observers have argued that the russian military operation in syria is a bold challenge to the united states in the region. Putins power play in syria januaryfebruary 2016 107 foreign policy at the munich security conference. In syria, russias stakes in president bashar alassads regime were clearly. The syria crisis and the making of russias foreign policy ponars eurasia policy memo no. Russian stroytransgaz was building a natural gas processing plant 200 kilometres east of homs in the alraqqa region and the company was involved in technical support for the construction of the arab gas pipeline. Russias middle eastern policy osrodek studiow wschodnich. Putins power play in syria how to respond to russia s intervention angela stent a t the end of september, russia began conducting air strikes in syria, ostensibly to combat terrorist groups. Occasional paper understanding irans role in the syrian conflict. Sep 12, 2019 russian interests and assets in venezuela. This view also fails to take seriously the limitations iran faces in syria, especially the very real reluctance of the syrian and russian governments to allow iran to. A summit between putin and trump will take place in helsinki on july 16. This paper identifies both us and russian primary interests and aims to analyze to what extent they have been advanced respectively in the unsc. Existing military, economic, culturaleducational, and other links notwithstanding, syria s importance as a purchaser of russian arms should not be overestimated, especially given the poor paying record of damascus.

The meeting between iran, turkey, and russia in astana, kazakhstan on january 2324, in advance of the next round of u. Russias foreign policy towards syria and the greater middle east is generally not. Russia s only mediterranean naval base for its black sea fleet is located in the. The russian aerospace forces actions in the conflict increased the combat effectiveness of russia s small contingent of forces in syria and allowed government forces to attain success on the ground. Countless times since, russia has vowed to replace what it sees as a coercive u.

First, reforms will clash with the entrenched vested interests in and linked to the government, and risk upsetting the balance of power by intensifying conflicts between competing political clans. Both the united states and russia seek to ensure a stable and unified syria, though the two countries disagree on how to achieve this. Its mission is to be an analytical, researchled global forum for informing, influencing and. Optimistically, some feel that the election of donald trump may diminish the us security threat, offer russia new opportunities in the region, and thus allow russia to prioritize other interests than it has been. The middle east is the second largest market for russian arms exports, exceeded only by south and southeast asia. In northwestern syria, turkish troops oversee uneasy ceasefires between opposition forces dominated by islamic extremists and the syrian government. Developments on the overlapping battlefields of the counterisis and antiassad campaigns in syria have. Dmitry dima adamsky is a professor at the school of government, diplomacy and strategy at the idc herzliya. As syria is the nexus of russias campaign to expand its regional influence, the students decided to focus on. In the final analysis, the combination of the misaligned global interests of the us war on terror, antiiran and russia reestablishing great power status, keeping syria on its side with the regional conflict between saudi arabia and iran makes the reconstruction of syria hostage to irreconcilable agendas given the countrys. Russia s economy is predominantly dependent on exports of oil and natural gas. More than twothirds of russia s foreign income is derived from oil and gas exports.

Russias policy on the syria crisis has been a litmus test revealing the more general pattern of russian foreign policy thinking and behavior. On 9 september 2016, reporters from the daily dot, using information from sealed us court documents, stated that the leaked version of the syria files omitted records of a 2,000,000,000 transfer from the central bank of syria to the russian governmentowned vtb bank. Assessing options for regime change daniel byman, michael doran, kenneth pollack, and salman shaikh syria is trapped on a crumbling precipice. There is good reason to broaden our understanding of russian strategy in the middle east. Both the russian federation and the united states have strong interests at stake in syria,and these interests overlap in part, but not completely both the united states and russia seek to ensure a stable and unified syria, though the two countries disagree on how to achieve this. This perspective seeks to identify the important elements of russian interests in middle east beyond syria, to define the nature of russian engagement in the region, and to describe the contours of a russian strategy in the middle east. Prospects for usrussian rivalry and cooperation on syria. Understanding russias intervention in syria rand corporation. While moscow may not welcome this, it will want to try to establish good working relations with a new syrian government in order to preserve russian interests in syria. Sputnik photo agency reuters after nearly seven years, the syrian civil war is finally winding down, and the middle easts various powers are looking ahead to what comes next. Russia s intervention in syria has introduced a dangerous new dynamic into an already volatile and complex conflict.

Russia the washington institute for near east policy. So far, the russia sponsored sochi peace talks appear to have yielded little progress, either for peace in syria or for russia s interests. A primer in russian active measures and influence campaigns 30 march 2017. Today, russian president vladimir putin and his key advisors, often referred to as his inner circle, use media to disseminate. The meaning of russias campaign in syria belfer center. Arguably, if the analytical community had more effectively understood russia s interests, objectives, and. As long as turkish president recep tayyip erdogan remains in charge and russia stays on its present course, the russian. U mapping russian media network medias role in russian. Russia is unlikely to change its position given that its interests in syria are not only military and strategic, but also commercial and cultural. Russia bilateral relations, already strained, have worsened since the beginning of the ukrainian crisis in 20. In pursuit of maintaining their interests in syria, moscow and tehran have adopted. The paper examines the russian approach to cyber warfare, addressing both its theoretical and its practical underpinnings.